Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: The outcome of the September 28, 2025, vote.
Market Volatility: The transition to the new tax system could create short-term market volatility.
Fiscal Uncertainty: How federal and cantonal governments will compensate for expected revenue losses, potentially leading to tax increases on other income or consumption.

Key Indicators

What this signals for the market/industry: The need to adapt to a new tax environment that could influence real estate investment decisions.
Leading Indicators and Data Points: Interest rate trends, construction costs, and voting decisions.

Regional Perspective

This reform represents a significant shift in the Swiss tax landscape. Cantons with a high proportion of secondary residences or older housing stock may face significant fiscal adjustments. The introduction of cantonal taxes on secondary residences could lead to a patchwork of financial practices across Switzerland.

Immediate Implications

What happens next: Implementation will depend on the outcome of the September 28, 2025 vote.
Time-sensitive opportunities or risks: Homeowners planning renovations should consider the tax timing.

What to Watch

Leading indicators to monitor: Public debates and official communications regarding the valeur locative debate and the upcoming vote.
Expected next developments: Details of cantonal implementation of any new taxes on secondary residences.
Key decision points ahead: The popular vote on September 28, 2025.

Analysis

The reform aims to address tax disparities between owners and renters but may create new challenges, particularly concerning cantonal revenue and its impact on the construction sector. Stakeholders need to closely watch how cantons will respond to potential revenue shortfalls and what this means for tenants.