Multiple sources have informed "Vedomosti" that Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee, is the leading candidate to succeed the late Supreme Court Chairperson Irina Podonova. This information emerges at a critical juncture, as the Supreme Judicial Qualification Board (VKKS) has opened the vacancy for the Supreme Court Chairperson, accepting documents until August 25. Podonova, who held the position, passed away on July 22, and the Deputy Head of the Supreme Court, Yuri Ivanenko, has been appointed acting head.

Bastrykin, whose current term as head of the Investigative Committee concludes on August 27, is viewed as the "most obvious" choice for the high-ranking post. While Ivanenko is considered an alternative candidate, sources suggest he may not possess the necessary gravitas for the position. The appointment process will involve an evaluation of candidates by a presidential commission, followed by the President submitting a proposal for the chosen candidate's appointment to the Federation Council.

Market Signals

Sector impacts and opportunities: The legal services sector may see increased demand for consultations to adapt to potential shifts in judicial practice. Financial institutions could face tighter regulation and oversight.
Price movements and volatility: Uncertainty surrounding changes in the judicial system could lead to temporary volatility in financial markets.
Competitor positioning changes: Companies heavily reliant on dispute resolution or under close regulatory scrutiny may need to reassess their strategies.

Winners & Losers

Government bodies involved in law enforcement and crime fighting, along with companies demonstrating strict legal compliance, are expected to benefit. Conversely, companies involved in litigation or those with past corruption allegations might be negatively impacted. Direct supply chain impacts are not anticipated, but indirect effects via regulatory changes are possible.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Monitor first appointments and movements within the Supreme Court to understand the new leadership's priorities.
Short-term: Evaluate initial shifts in judicial practices based on early decisions.
Long-term: Adapt business and legal strategies in line with the new governance style.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory risks: Potential tightening of regulations and enforcement, particularly concerning economic crimes, corruption, and financial violations.
Market volatility factors: Uncertainty related to high-level personnel changes could cause temporary market volatility.
Geopolitical tensions: Bastrykin's known stance could influence Russia's international economic relations.

Key Indicators

Signal for market/industry: The potential appointment may signal a trend towards strengthening the role of security structures and centralization within the judiciary.
Leading indicators and data points: Tracking the Supreme Court's initial rulings under new leadership, Bastrykin's statements, and reactions from the legal community.

Regional Perspective

Given Bastrykin's background in St. Petersburg, his potential appointment could enhance the influence of the northwestern region on judicial policy, potentially bringing a more stringent and pragmatic approach to law enforcement.

Immediate Implications

What happens next: The Supreme Judicial Qualification Board will evaluate candidates, followed by a presidential and parliamentary approval process.
Time-sensitive opportunities or risks: Businesses should prepare for a potentially more stringent regulatory and judicial environment and review their compliance procedures.

What to Watch

Leading indicators to monitor: Appointments within the Supreme Court, first judicial decisions, official statements.
Expected next developments: Issuance of the appointment decree, release of new judicial guidelines.
Key decision points ahead: Federation Council approval of the appointment.

The potential appointment of Alexander Bastrykin as the head of the Supreme Court carries significant implications for Russia's judiciary. Bastrykin, known for his rigor and investigative background, is seen as a figure who could redefine the Supreme Court's approach, potentially emphasizing law enforcement and accountability. This shift could significantly impact the business climate, particularly for companies dealing with complex legal issues or undergoing strict regulatory scrutiny. Businesses should prepare for an environment potentially characterized by a more decisive application of laws and leverage transparency in business practices to mitigate potential risks.