Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: The IRGC's terrorist designation is likely to lead to new sanctions and restrictions on entities dealing with the organization.
Geopolitical Tensions: The expulsion represents a significant diplomatic escalation, increasing the likelihood of broader retaliatory measures from Iran.
Market Volatility: Heightened geopolitical tensions can contribute to general market uncertainty, though direct economic impact on Australia is expected to be limited.

Key Indicators

This event signals a firming stance by Australia against state-sponsored foreign interference and antisemitism, potentially influencing other nations' policies regarding the IRGC.
ASIO's ongoing investigations into further attacks will be a critical leading indicator for future diplomatic or legal actions.

Regional Perspective

Australia's decision to expel an ambassador, a rare diplomatic measure, highlights a unique focus on combating antisemitic acts allegedly orchestrated by Iran on Australian soil. This action underscores Australia's commitment to national security and social cohesion, setting a precedent for its foreign policy responses to state-sponsored aggression.

Immediate Implications

Australian diplomats in Iran are safe but operations are suspended, requiring relocation to a third country.
Businesses with any Iran-related exposure face an immediate need to review risk assessments and contingency plans, with potential for increased compliance burdens.

What to Watch

Iran's reciprocal actions, including potential diplomatic expulsions or sanctions.
International reactions from allies and nations with significant ties to Iran.
Further intelligence from ASIO regarding potential Iranian involvement in other attacks.
Future trade data between Australia and Iran to assess the impact of the diplomatic rupture.

Analysis

Australia's decisive action against Iran, driven by intelligence linking Tehran to antisemitic attacks, represents a significant geopolitical development. The expulsion of an ambassador and the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist entity underscore the severity of the perceived threat to Australia's internal stability. This move not only reinforces Australia's commitment to combating foreign interference but also positions it alongside key allies like the US and Canada in confronting the IRGC's activities. The implications extend beyond bilateral relations, potentially influencing broader international policy shifts concerning Iran and its proxies, and serving as a stark warning to nations engaging in similar destabilizing activities on foreign soil.