Bolivia's presidential elections, scheduled for this Sunday, signal a potential end to nearly two decades of left-wing rule, with the ruling Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party facing internal divisions and right-wing candidates leading in opinion polls. Over 7.5 million Bolivian voters are facing a crucial choice that could reshape the country's political landscape after more than 20 years of MAS dominance. Former President Evo Morales, who governed the country for nearly 14 years, has been barred from running again by judicial authorities. Meanwhile, current President Luis Arce, who came to power with Morales' backing in 2020 but later broke with him, has opted not to run.

With the MAS party, which brought both to power, entirely divided and Morales calling for votes to be annulled, the left appears to have slim chances of reaching a second round, with the party's two candidates being Andrónico Rodríguez and Eduardo del Castillo. The MAS party has been in power in Bolivia almost continuously since 2006, with a brief interruption between 2019 and 2020 following Morales' resignation amid protests.

Regional Perspective

Bolivian elections could end two decades of left-wing rule. With Evo Morales barred from competing, the leftist party enters the poll divided, leaving right-wing candidates leading in opinion surveys. This potential shift represents a significant turning point for Bolivians, who have been accustomed to left-wing leadership since 2006, barring a short period. The internal divisions within the MAS party and Morales' call for nullifying votes significantly weaken the prospects of his successors.

Immediate Implications

What happens next: A victory for a right-wing candidate is likely to bring about significant political and economic shifts, including a reassessment of the state's role in the economy and potentially the privatization of state-owned enterprises.
Time-sensitive opportunities or risks: Companies looking to invest in Bolivia might benefit from more market-friendly policies, while those reliant on government subsidies could face new challenges.

Analysis

Opinion polls indicate that businessman Samuel Doria Medina is leading in voter intention, followed by former President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga. Both represent a right-wing or center-right agenda, promising to address issues such as dollar and fuel shortages and privatize state-owned companies. The left's emergence in lower positions in voter intention polls, with their candidates obtaining only 5.5% and 1.5% in one survey, underscores the immense challenges facing the ruling party. This election will not only decide the president and vice president but also elect 36 senators and 130 deputies, shaping Bolivia's future legislation and policy.