Escalating Tech Sanctions: Monitor potential new US and EU export controls targeting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology and equipment. Beijing's retaliatory measures will be a key indicator of geopolitical friction.
China's Self-Sufficiency Milestones: Track the progress of China's domestic chipmakers like SMIC and AI champions. Any breakthroughs in producing advanced chips without Western technology would signal a major shift in the tech balance of power.
Pace of 'China+1' Diversification: The speed at which major companies like Apple successfully shift significant production to countries like Vietnam and India will reveal the real-world feasibility and cost of decoupling from China's ecosystem.

Geopolitical Volatility: The US-China tech rivalry is a primary source of global instability. Businesses are at risk of being caught in the crossfire of sanctions, tariffs, and competing technology standards.
Regulatory Whiplash: Beijing's regulatory landscape can change abruptly, especially in sectors deemed critical to national security or social stability. Sudden crackdowns can erase market value and disrupt operations overnight.
Supply Chain Vulnerability: Over-reliance on China creates a critical single point of failure. Any disruption, whether from trade disputes, domestic policy shifts, or logistical bottlenecks, could paralyze global production for many firms.