Hamas announced on Monday that it has accepted a new proposal from mediators for a ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, linked to the release of hostages held in the territory. This move comes as the Israeli military prepares to take control of Gaza City and nearby refugee camps, with the stated objective of eliminating Hamas and freeing all hostages abducted in the October 7th attack.

Efforts by mediators—Egypt, Qatar, and the United States—have failed in recent months to achieve a lasting ceasefire in the war devastating the Gaza Strip. A Hamas official, Bassem Naim, stated on social media: "Hamas has given its response, accepting the mediators' new proposal. We pray God extinguishes the fire of this war against our people."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had warned last week that he would only accept a deal "in which all hostages are released at once and on our conditions for ending the war" in Gaza. Conversely, American President Donald Trump, an ally of Netanyahu, stated: "we will not see the return of the remaining hostages until Hamas is confronted and destroyed!!! The faster this happens, the better the chances of success." According to the Israeli army, 49 hostages are still held in Gaza, including 27 deceased. In total, 251 people were taken hostage during the October 7th attack, most of whom were released during two previous truces.

Key Indicators

Strong Signal: Hamas's acceptance of the ceasefire proposal indicates a potential shift in the conflict's trajectory, with immediate implications for regional stability and diplomatic efforts.
Leading Indicators: The acceptance of the proposal by Hamas places significant pressure on Israel to respond, potentially opening a window for immediate diplomatic opportunities.

Regional Perspective

Hamas's acceptance of the ceasefire proposal marks a critical turning point in the ongoing conflict. This move places the ball in Israel's court, with reactions expected to influence the course of the war and the situation of the hostages. The regional significance lies in the potential to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and open new avenues for negotiation.

Immediate Implications

What happens next: The future course hinges on Israel's response to the proposal, with expectations of increased international pressure to reach an agreement.
Time-sensitive opportunities or risks: There is a limited window of opportunity to reach a deal, creating immediate diplomatic chances but also carrying risks of escalation if a compromise is not achieved.

Analysis

Hamas's acceptance of the proposal is a significant step towards a ceasefire, but it does not guarantee its finality. Israel must now balance internal and external pressures. Any agreement will require concessions from both sides, particularly regarding the terms for ending the war and releasing all hostages. Israel's response will shape the region's trajectory in the coming weeks.