Hamas has agreed to the latest proposal from regional mediators for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal with Israel, a source in the Palestinian armed group has told the BBC. The proposal from Egypt and Qatar is said to be based on a two-stage framework put forward by US envoy Steve Witkoff in June. It would see Hamas free around half of the 50 remaining Israeli hostages - 20 of whom are believed to be alive - in two batches during an initial 60-day truce. There would also be negotiations on a permanent ceasefire.

It is unclear what Israel's response will be, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has said it will now only accept a deal if "all the hostages are released in one go". In a video released after the reports of Hamas's approval emerged, Netanyahu did not comment directly but said he got the impression that the group was "under immense pressure". Later this week, his cabinet is expected to approve the Israeli military's plan to occupy Gaza City, where intensifying Israeli strikes have prompted thousands of Palestinians to flee.

This development holds significant implications for regional stability and the ongoing conflict. Hamas's agreement signals a potential opening for de-escalation and humanitarian relief, but Israel's stance on releasing hostages in a single batch presents a major hurdle. The complex negotiations, involving multiple international and regional actors, highlight the delicate nature of achieving a lasting resolution. The outcome of these talks will critically influence the immediate future of Gaza and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with potential long-term effects on regional security and diplomatic relations.

Key Indicators

Market Signal: A potential ceasefire could ease tensions in the region, potentially impacting oil prices and regional economic activity.
Leading Indicators: The success of such a deal could pave the way for broader diplomatic efforts and contribute to long-term regional stability.
Action Window: Israel's swift response and the progress of negotiations will be crucial in determining the immediate trajectory of events.

Regional Perspective

Hamas's agreement to the proposal comes at a critical juncture for Gaza, where residents face severe humanitarian conditions amid ongoing military operations. This deal, if finalized, could offer a window for easing suffering and facilitating aid. However, Israel's demand for the release of all hostages in one go remains a significant obstacle. Any breakthrough could encourage renewed talks on a broader political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but may also face resistance from hardline factions.

Analysis

Hamas's acceptance of the proposal is a significant step, but it does not guarantee an imminent end to the conflict. Israel's insistence on releasing all hostages in one go presents a major sticking point. International and regional pressures on both sides will play a crucial role in how negotiations unfold. In the long term, the success or failure of this deal will impact regional stability, Israel's relations with Arab nations, and efforts to rebuild Gaza. The future governance of Gaza post-conflict and the role of the Palestinian Authority will remain pivotal issues requiring diplomatic and political attention.