Hurricane Erin is being tracked as the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, having weakened to a Category 3 storm early Sunday. Erin is expected to re-intensify after its temporary weakening.

Erin had maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, according to an 8 a.m. ET update from the National Hurricane Center. This weakening is seen as only temporary, as Erin is expected to re-intensify after completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These are natural cycles that normally weaken a hurricane a bit, but re-intensification is normal once the cycle is completed.

As of the latest update, Erin is located about 170 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, or about 270 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island. It is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. Erin's outer bands continue to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. "Considerable" flash flood warnings are ongoing for the U.S. Virgin Islands, with an estimated 3 to 6 inches of rain having fallen over St. John and St. Thomas according to radar, and 2 to 4 inches reported for the northern sections of Puerto Rico. Flood watches are expected to remain in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands until Monday morning. Isolated storm rainfall totals of between 6 to 8 inches are still possible as the outer bands of Erin continue to pass over these areas, enough to cause quick flooding and possibly landslides and mudslides.

Regional Perspective

As Erin moves west-southwest on Sunday, the storm's outer bands will continue to bring rain and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Conditions should begin to improve later this afternoon for the U.S. Virgin Islands and by tonight for Puerto Rico. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands as Erin's outer bands will graze the islands with heavy rain and gusty winds. Tropical storm watches are also in effect for the southeast Bahamas.

Immediate Implications

Erin is expected to slow down and begin turning to the north later today through the early work week.
Erin's forecasted path for this week remains the same as it has been for the past few days, as do the steering factors that will be at play to make it happen.
Erin will slowly turn north over the next few days thanks to the weakening Bermuda High and a cold front that will sweep through the East Coast to begin the new week.
Weather models are still in good agreement on Erin steering between Bermuda and the East Coast this week, keeping any direct impacts for the U.S. Mainland at bay.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are anticipated for the Eastern U.S. coastline between the Space Coast of Florida and coastal New England.

Analysis

These dangerous surf conditions are driven by Erin's growing size as it treks northward this week. The bigger the storm, the bigger the wave action that will come from it. Very large waves will also be likely from the Carolinas to possibly the Northeast by Thursday. Eight- to 12-foot waves will be possible along the Carolina coastline, bringing not only dangerous surf but also potentially significant beach erosion that could threaten beachfront properties.