International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan has officially rejected calls to disqualify him from the case involving former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. In a 13-page submission dated August 18, Khan cited the absence of any conflict of interest and his commitment to impartiality, emphasizing that the threshold for removing an ICC prosecutor must remain high to protect the integrity of judicial proceedings. Khan's response follows a move by Duterte's legal team to have him removed from the case, citing alleged past involvement in representing victims of Duterte's bloody “war on drugs.”

Duterte's counsel, Nicholas Kaufman, argued that Khan had previously worked as a private lawyer in 2018 for individuals who were purported victims of extrajudicial killings in the Philippines, an alleged conflict of interest that, they argued, should bar him from prosecuting the case. Khan, however, dismissed these claims, clarifying that any prior involvement he had was not in a role that compromised his impartiality or could lead a reasonable observer to doubt his objectivity. To bolster his position, Khan cited precedents in international law, noting that it is not uncommon for prosecutors in international tribunals to have previously engaged with victim groups or participated in preliminary proceedings without being disqualified. The prosecutor added that he will continue to assess the situation as the case develops and will take appropriate action if new circumstances warrant a reassessment.

Khan’s continued leadership of the case comes as the ICC advances its investigation into alleged crimes against humanity committed under Duterte’s presidency, particularly linked to the country’s controversial anti-narcotics campaign that has resulted in thousands of deaths. The Duterte administration has long rejected the ICC’s jurisdiction. However, the court maintains that it retains authority to investigate crimes committed while the Philippines was still a state party to the Rome Statute before its withdrawal in 2019. The ongoing legal proceedings have had a limited immediate impact on the Philippine economy. The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) experienced a slight dip of 1.2% on March 12, 2025, the day of Duterte's arrest, but rebounded within a week.

Market Signals

Sector impacts and opportunities: The Philippine markets have shown no significant turmoil, but economic stability remains key for long-term investment.
Price movements and volatility: The PSEi index saw a slight dip in March 2025 but recovered quickly, indicating market resilience.
Competitor positioning changes: No significant shifts in competitor positioning have been observed from this specific case.

Winners & Losers

Winners: Victims and human rights advocates, the international justice system. Losers: Former President Duterte and allies, entities concerned with national sovereignty.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Prosecutor Khan continues to lead the case, rejecting disqualification bid, signaling ongoing investigation.
Short-term: Monitor Duterte's legal team's response and potential ICC Pre-Trial Chamber rulings on jurisdiction.
Long-term: Setting precedents for international accountability and the ICC's impact on other leaders.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory and legal risks: Ongoing legal challenges regarding ICC jurisdiction.
Market volatility: Potential for short-term market volatility in response to significant legal or political developments.
Geopolitical tensions: Tensions between national sovereignty and international accountability.

Key Indicators

Signals a clear trend towards international accountability for leaders.
Leading indicators: ICC Pre-Trial Chamber rulings, ongoing investigations.

Regional Perspective

ICC Prosecutor rejects bid to recuse himself from the Duterte case, indicating continued accountability in the Philippines.

Immediate Implications

The prosecutor's continued role means investigations into alleged crimes against humanity in the Philippines will proceed.
The need for close monitoring of the political and judicial situation in the Philippines.

What to Watch

ICC Pre-Trial Chamber rulings on jurisdiction and disqualification issues.
The Philippine political landscape and its reactions to ICC decisions.
Economic data measuring the impact of political and legal developments.

The rejection of the disqualification motion by ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan in the Duterte case underscores the court's commitment to investigating alleged crimes against humanity in the Philippines. While the legal battle over jurisdiction continues, the Philippines' economic fundamentals remain relatively strong. However, persistent concerns about corruption and political stability require careful monitoring by investors.