A new study has revealed that inappropriate prescriptions, including potentially inappropriate medications and omissions of necessary medications, are linked to an increased risk of mortality in older adults. The research indicated that over 80% of older adults were exposed to potentially inappropriate prescribing, highlighting a widespread issue in healthcare.

The study assessed 1210 community-dwelling older adults from a longitudinal study in Israel, analyzing data collected from 1999 to 2007. Researchers utilized criteria such as the American Geriatrics Society Beers Criteria and the European Screening Tool of Older Persons’ Prescription (STOPP) version 3 to identify potentially inappropriate medications. Additionally, potential prescribing omissions were identified using the Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START) version 3 criteria. The findings linked exposure to two or more inappropriate medications or two or more prescribing omissions to an increased risk of all-cause mortality and non-cancer mortality.

Market Signals

Sector Impacts and Opportunities: The findings point to an urgent need for improved medication management within the aged care sector, creating opportunities for health technology companies, drug safety-focused pharmaceutical firms, and pharmacy service providers.
Price Movements and Valuations: Concerns over inappropriate medications could lead to increased scrutiny on drug costs associated with seniors, potentially impacting valuations of pharmaceutical companies heavily reliant on this market.
Competitor Positioning Shifts: Companies offering innovative medication management solutions, such as AI-driven drug review systems or deprescribing programs, can strengthen their competitive standing.

Stakeholder Impact

Winners: Health technology companies developing medication review tools, pharmacies offering specialized medication management services, and healthcare providers adopting precise prescribing practices. Losers: Healthcare providers who may face increased scrutiny on their practices, and pharmaceutical companies whose products could be affected if deemed inappropriate for older adults.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Assess current prescribing practices of aged care providers and identify potentially inappropriate medications.
Short-term: Implement training programs for healthcare providers on best practices for prescribing to older adults and deploy medication review tools.
Long-term: Develop and implement national guidelines on deprescribing and integrate AI systems into medication management.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: Potential for stricter regulations on prescribing practices for older adults.
Market Volatility: General concerns about medication safety could impact pharmaceutical company stock prices.
Geopolitical Tensions: No direct geopolitical factors are linked to this study, but global supply chain disruptions could affect medication availability.

Key Indicators

Signal for Market/Industry: An urgent need for improved medication safety in older adults, driving innovation in medication management.
Leading Indicators and Data Points: Prevalence rates of inappropriate medications, rates of medication reviews, and outcomes of drug safety studies.

Regional Perspective

While the study was conducted in Israel, the findings are globally relevant. In Australia, where the pharmaceutical market was valued at AUD 20.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow, the aging population increases the importance of medication management. The allocation of AUD 333.7 million for employing pharmacists in aged care facilities underscores government attention to addressing these issues.

Immediate Implications

What Happens Next: Healthcare providers will need to review prescribing protocols and train staff.
Time-Sensitive Opportunities or Risks: An opportunity for companies offering medication management solutions to proactively offer their services to aged care facilities.

What to Watch

Leading Indicators to Monitor: Adoption rates of new pharmacist-in-residence programs in aged care facilities and the development of guidelines on reducing inappropriate medications.
Expected Next Developments: Regulatory bodies may issue new recommendations on prescribing for older adults.
Key Decision Points Ahead: Decisions by aged care providers and pharmaceutical companies regarding investment in medication management technology.

Analysis

This study signals a potential shift in how medications are managed for older adults. The clear link between inappropriate prescribing and increased mortality risk underscores the need for a more precise and personalized approach to prescribing. Companies that can address this issue through technology and consulting services will be well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.