Winners & Losers

Winners: The Japanese economy stands to benefit from higher-quality, more stable investment, potentially leading to greater job creation and tax revenues. Companies with substantial capital and robust business plans will find it easier to establish a presence, facing less competition from smaller entrants. Employer of Record (EOR) service providers are also likely to see increased demand from businesses seeking alternative compliant entry strategies.Losers: Small businesses, startups, and individual entrepreneurs with limited capital will find the new requirements prohibitive, effectively pricing many out of the Japanese market. Certain sectors, particularly those with inherently lower capital requirements, will be disproportionately affected.

Action Timeline

Immediate (Before Mid-October 2025): Businesses with sufficient capital and a strong plan should consider expediting their visa applications under the current rules, though be aware of potential backlogs. Simultaneously, explore alternative entry strategies like EOR services for compliant operation without direct visa dependency.
Short-term (Post-October 2025): Companies aiming for Japan must strategically revise their business plans to demonstrably meet the new 30 million yen capital, employment, and specialist review requirements. Focus on clear viability and economic contribution.
Long-term: Foreign businesses must adapt their entire Japan market entry and operational strategies, prioritizing substantial investment, local employment, and verifiable business operations to align with Japan's new focus on high-quality FDI.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risk: The primary risk is the significant increase in capital requirements, which could deter a large number of potential applicants and reduce the diversity of foreign-owned businesses in Japan. Increased scrutiny and compliance demands also present operational hurdles.
Market Volatility Factors: Global economic downturns or shifts in investment trends could further exacerbate the impact of these stricter visa regulations, potentially reducing the overall inflow of foreign capital.
Operational Challenges: For businesses that do meet the new requirements, ensuring continuous compliance with more stringent documentation, employment standards, and operational transparency will be crucial and resource-intensive.

Key Indicators

Investment Quality Shift: The policy explicitly signals Japan's prioritization of substantial, legitimate foreign direct investment (FDI) over a broader influx of entrepreneurial ventures, indicating a focus on long-term economic stability and contribution.
Specific Requirements: Key data points include the 30 million yen minimum capital, requirement for at least one full-time employee, three years of relevant work experience or an academic qualification, and mandatory specialist review of business plans.