Israel has dispatched tanks into Gaza City and recalled 60,000 reservists, signaling a significant escalation in its military operations. Concurrently, a plan to approve a settlement that effectively divides the West Bank has been greenlit. French President Emmanuel Macron has voiced strong opposition to a "perpetual war," highlighting the deepening crisis.

The Israeli military has declared Hamas reduced to a "battered guerrilla group," with the army spokesperson announcing deeper strikes into Gaza City, described as a "stronghold of terror." This new offensive, ordered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, requires the mobilization of 130,000 reservists, with 60,000 already receiving call-up notices. The General Staff anticipates clashes to continue into 2026. Amidst this, thousands of ultra-Orthodox Israelis, whose parties are allied with Netanyahu, are protesting against attempts to conscript them into mandatory service.

Jihadist groups remain capable of launching swift attacks against troops. A commando of 15 militants assaulted a military outpost in the Khan Younis area, the birthplace of Yahya Sinwar, the planner of the October 7, 2023 massacre that killed 1,200 Israelis. The fundamentalists were repelled and killed; army sources indicate the objective was to abduct a soldier.

Defense Minister Israel Katz stated, "When we are finished, Gaza will have changed its face, it will no longer be the same." Currently, the city is scarred with craters, rubble, and thousands of displaced people sheltering amidst the remains of buildings. The number of Palestinians killed exceeds 62,000. The International Committee of the Red Cross warns that the plan to transfer the population south "will worsen an already catastrophic situation." French President Emmanuel Macron continues to express the strongest opposition in Europe to Netanyahu's choices, denouncing the new offensive after speaking with Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and King Abdullah of Jordan: "The new offensive represents a disaster for both peoples and drags the region into a permanent conflict." Families of hostages announce another general strike for Sunday, demanding the government accept the mediators' proposal: a 60-day truce in exchange for the release of 10 living hostages and 18 bodies. The relatives of the kidnapped fear the troop advance endangers their loved ones.

Netanyahu proceeds, backed by his friend Donald Trump, who has decided on new sanctions against the judges of the International Criminal Court in The Hague "because they threaten Americans and Israelis." In November 2024, the judges approved arrest warrants for the Israeli premier and then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. The Prime Minister's messianic and hardline allies have also secured approval for the construction of a large settlement in the so-called E1 area east of Jerusalem. The international community and US presidents, including Trump, have always opposed this because the housing block cuts the West Bank in two, making the creation of a territorially contiguous Palestinian state practically impossible.

Italy's condemnation was swift: "Israel's decision to proceed with new settlements in the West Bank is unacceptable, contrary to international law," said Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, "and indeed risks permanently compromising the two-state solution."

Key Indicators

This development signals a continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially impacting regional stability and energy markets.
Increasing international pressure on Israel could lead to shifts in regional policies or the imposition of sanctions, necessitating continuous monitoring.

Regional Perspective

The approval of settlement expansion in the E1 area creates a deeper geographical division within the West Bank, significantly complicating the feasibility of a viable Palestinian state. This move is raising serious concerns within the international community and intensifying tensions with the Palestinian Authority and neighboring Arab nations, threatening to undermine any future peace efforts.

Immediate Implications

Military operations in Gaza are expected to intensify, with a rise in casualties and further forced displacement.
The threat of sanctions from various countries against Israeli officials for settlement policies could impact diplomatic and economic relations.
Rising tensions in the West Bank may lead to a new intifada or increased resistance, exacerbating regional instability.

Analysis

Israel's decision to intensify military operations in Gaza and proceed with new settlement construction in the West Bank marks a serious shift in the conflict's trajectory. The recall of 60,000 reservists indicates Israel is preparing for a prolonged conflict, while the settlement expansion in E1 presents a direct challenge to the two-state solution, drawing sharp condemnation from Italy and France. This situation places Israel in increasing confrontation with the international community, potentially leading to diplomatic and possibly economic isolation. Calls for a permanent ceasefire and rejection of "perpetual war" by European leaders underscore the escalating risks of regional conflagration. Businesses and investors should closely monitor these developments, as political and military volatility can significantly impact markets in the Middle East and surrounding regions.