Winners:

US Government: Benefits from a 15% revenue share from Nvidia's China chip sales, generating significant funds (estimated $2.3 billion by year-end 2025).
Nvidia: Maintains a presence in the crucial Chinese AI market, albeit with reduced margins, and demonstrates adaptability to geopolitical challenges.
Global AI Market: Continued access to advanced AI chips, albeit with potential performance limitations for Chinese customers.

Losers:

Nvidia: Margin compression due to the revenue-sharing agreement and potential loss of market share to domestic Chinese competitors.
Chinese AI Companies: May face higher costs or limited access to the most advanced AI chips, potentially slowing their development in some areas, but also spurring domestic innovation.
Nvidia's Suppliers (Samsung, Amkor): Production halts for the H20 chip can impact their business.

Immediate: Monitor regulatory approval decisions regarding the B30A chip. Track geopolitical developments between the US and China.
Short-term: Evaluate investment opportunities in global AI infrastructure. Explore strategies for diversifying revenue streams into other emerging markets.
Long-term: Monitor the progress of Chinese domestic chip development, projected to reach 55% of the domestic AI chip market by 2027. Watch for shifts in US export policies.

Regulatory Risks: The uncertainty surrounding US government approval for new chips like the B30A and potential future restrictions.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating US-China tensions could lead to further trade barriers and supply chain disruptions.
Market Volatility: Nvidia's stock price has shown volatility influenced by US export policies and revenue-sharing arrangements, indicating ongoing market sensitivity to these factors.
Technological Decoupling: A complete decoupling of US and Chinese tech ecosystems could significantly impact Nvidia's long-term market access and growth.
"Backdoor" Concerns: Allegations of security risks and "backdoor" functions in Nvidia's chips by Chinese regulators could lead to further market access issues.

B30A Chip Approval: Regulatory decisions concerning this new chip will be a crucial indicator for Nvidia's strategy in China.
Chinese Domestic Chip Development: Progress made by companies like Huawei in developing competitive AI chips.
US Policy Shifts: Any changes in US export control policies, particularly under the Trump administration, could significantly impact the market.
US-China Relations: Any escalation or de-escalation in bilateral relations will directly affect the semiconductor trade.