Pakistan has restored electricity in most flood-affected districts in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, state media reported Saturday. The nationwide monsoon death toll has climbed to 788 since late June. Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar confirmed that power has been restored to most of the affected districts, with 52 out of 60 feeders operational in Swat, Shangla, Buner, and Swabi, and the remaining eight expected to be back online soon. No national highways are currently blocked, and federal authorities are assisting the KP government in reopening provincial roads.

In a separate development, Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) in Sindh province accused India’s external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), of orchestrating the killing of a “prominent welfare worker” in May, announcing the arrest of six suspects linked to Indian operatives. Abdul Rehman, known for his welfare work, was shot dead in Matli town on May 18. Indian media subsequently claimed the deceased was a key member of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

Speaking at a press conference in Karachi, Azad Khan, Additional Inspector General of CTD Sindh, stated that their investigation revealed Rehman’s “extraterritorial killing” was orchestrated by a RAW handler, Sanjay Sanjeev Kumar, operating from a Gulf country. Khan added that Kumar orchestrated the killing through a Pakistani national named Salman, paying him a substantial sum. Pakistan has previously accused India’s intelligence agency of involvement in killings within its territory, claiming evidence linking Indian agents to the deaths of two Pakistanis last year. RAW reportedly spent a “significant” amount of money on the operation, transferring funds through various channels to Salman and his associates.

Market Signals

Sector-Wide Implications: The immediate focus on restoring power and clearing roads signifies a critical need to re-establish basic services, indicating disruptions in logistics and supply chains, particularly for the vital agriculture sector. Damage to irrigation infrastructure (226 channels and 68 water supply schemes unusable in KP) heightens concerns over agricultural losses. The recurring severe flooding raises questions about Pakistan's infrastructure resilience.
Price Movements and Volatility: Potential crop losses could lead to increased food commodity prices in the short to medium term.
Competitor Positioning: Construction, engineering, and logistics firms involved in reconstruction and relief efforts are likely to see increased demand for their services.

Stakeholder Impact

Winners: Construction and engineering firms, building material suppliers, logistics companies, aid organizations. Losers: Businesses and individuals in affected regions, the agriculture sector, the national economy due to reconstruction costs. Supply Chain Implications: Disruptions to transportation networks impact the movement of goods. Power restoration is crucial for industrial and commercial operations.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Opportunities for infrastructure repair and relief services in flood-affected areas.
Short-term: Focus on restoring critical infrastructure.
Long-term: Investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and supporting the 'build back better' strategy.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: Rapid reconstruction efforts may face regulatory hurdles.
Market Volatility: The persistent threat of climate-induced disasters can create economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical Tensions: Pakistan's economic situation and reliance on international aid could be influenced by geopolitical factors.
Repetition of Past Disasters: Fear of a repeat of the catastrophic 2022 floods.
Debt Burden: Borrowing for flood recovery could exacerbate Pakistan's significant debt burden.

Key Indicators

Market/Industry Signals: Urgent need for reconstruction of infrastructure and essential services.
Leading Indicators: Monitor international aid pledges, power restoration progress, and road reopenings.

Regional Perspective

The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the most severely affected. Pakistan's accusations against India's intelligence agency for orchestrating a killing highlight the ongoing tensions between the two countries, particularly in the context of the disputed Kashmir region.

Immediate Implications

What Happens Next: Continued efforts to restore services in flood-affected areas.
Time-Sensitive Opportunities or Risks: Opportunities for companies offering repair and rescue services.

What to Watch

Leading Indicators: Reports of additional rainfall, progress on reconstruction projects, and official statements on the security situation.
Expected Developments: Continued relief and recovery efforts, and investigations into the allegations against India.
Key Decision Points: Actions by the Pakistani government regarding pursuing international cases related to the allegations.

Analysis

These developments underscore Pakistan's dual challenges: recurring natural disasters and persistent geopolitical tensions. While recovery efforts focus on rebuilding flood-damaged infrastructure, the accusations against India complicate the security and political landscape, potentially impacting regional stability and international cooperation.