The transport sector in Lima and Callao, Peru, faces a massive disruption as a comprehensive strike has been announced for August 21st. This strike, called by the National Association of Transport Integration (ANITRA) and other guilds, is estimated to paralyze approximately 90% of formal transport, involving an estimated 20,000 vehicles from over 400 companies. The primary reason for this protest action is the escalating insecurity, extortions, and assassinations targeting drivers and personnel, coupled with the government's failure to address their demands.

Martín Valeriano, president of ANITRA, directly refuted claims by the Minister of Transport and Communications, César Sandoval, who downplayed the strike. Valeriano emphasized that the protest is an inevitable response to what he describes as an indolent government ignoring repeated calls for safety for drivers and passengers. Protesters also plan a march to Congress, aiming to discuss the ongoing security crisis with legislative authorities.

A unique aspect of this strike is that some major transport companies, such as "Los Chinos" and "Etuchisa," initially reported as not participating, have now confirmed their adherence, further solidifying the strike's impact. This development serves as a clear warning that the sector will not tolerate the continued violence that has claimed the lives of over 40 drivers in Lima and Callao in 2024 and 2025 alone, with extortions estimated to reach up to 10 million soles monthly.

Market Signals

Sector Impacts and Opportunities: Significant disruption to urban mobility and goods transport in Lima and Callao is expected. Commerce, logistics, and tourism sectors will be negatively affected. Companies not joining the strike, such as certain lines of "Los Chinos," "Rápido," and "Etuchisa," may gain a temporary competitive advantage, but must be prepared for potential reprisals.
Price Movements and Volatility: No direct impact on the Peruvian Sol's exchange rate is anticipated, but price volatility for specific goods and services may emerge due to supply chain disruptions.
Competitor Positioning Changes: Companies capable of providing alternative transport solutions or last-mile delivery could capitalize on this service interruption.

Winners & Losers

Winners: Transport companies that do not adhere to the strike and offer continuous services. Providers of security solutions and technology for the transport sector. Losers: The majority of formal transport companies adhering to the strike, commuters relying on public transport, and businesses dependent on logistics and supply chains. The urban areas of Lima and Callao are directly the most affected.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Logistics and supply chain companies should evaluate and adjust routes, consider transport alternatives (if possible), and communicate possible delays to clients. Transport companies should reinforce security and clearly communicate company policies regarding the strike and safety to drivers. Retailers should secure sufficient inventories.
Short-term: Monitor government response in the next 30 days to determine if the strike escalates to an indefinite national strike.
Long-term: Investment opportunities in security technology and innovative logistics solutions to mitigate future risks.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: Government response could include regulatory or control measures affecting the sector.
Operational Risks: Supply chain disruption, loss of revenue, and potential property damage.
Market Volatility: The strike could generate volatility in prices of certain goods and services due to transport issues.
Risk of Reprisals: Companies and drivers not adhering to the strike could face reprisals.

Key Indicators

What this Signals for the Market/Industry: This indicates a deep security crisis requiring urgent government response.
Leading Indicators and Data Points: Government response in the next 30 days, unity of transport guilds, and evolution of extortion and violence statistics in the transport sector.

Regional Perspective

Lima and Callao are the epicenter of this strike, facing a unique challenge from organized crime specifically targeting the transport sector. The strike underscores the urgent need for effective security solutions in these major urban centers.

Immediate Implications

What Happens Next: Widespread transport disruption on August 21st.
Time-Sensitive Opportunities or Risks: Immediate need for contingency planning. Prices for some goods and services may rise due to transport difficulties.

What to Watch

Leading Indicators to Monitor: Progress of government dialogue with guilds, and effectiveness of security measures implemented.
Expected Next Developments: Guilds' decision regarding a potential national strike if demands are not met.
Key Decision Points Ahead: Government's response to security demands within 30 days, which will determine the course of events.

Analysis

This strike represents a crucial test for the Peruvian government and its ability to address the escalating security crisis. It is also a catalyst for companies to re-evaluate their supply chains and invest in resilient security and logistics solutions. Threats of a national strike suggest this is not merely a local issue but a matter of national importance requiring immediate attention at the highest levels.