Action must be taken to curb the use of plastic additives linked to plummeting sperm counts, a leading reproductive scientist has warned, as splits over chemical regulation contributed to the collapse of a crucial treaty on plastic pollution. Globally, sperm counts have been declining at a rate of about 1% a year for the past 50 years, and human fertility has been diminishing at a similar rate. While increasing obesity, sedentary lifestyles, and ageing populations have all been cited as possible causes, Dr. Shanna Swan, professor of environmental medicine and public health, believes environmental factors, particularly toxins that interfere with steroid hormones, play the most significant role.

In 2017, Swan and colleagues published a meta-analysis showing a decline in sperm counts of almost 60% among men in North America, Europe, and Australia between 1973 and 2011. In 2023, they repeated the research, extending the study to 2018 and including data from Africa, Asia, and South America, making even more shocking findings. Swan reported a significant decline in both western and non-western countries, noting that the annual decline rate for studies published after 2000 has risen to over 2%, compared to 1% in earlier studies. This warning comes amidst growing alarm about the impact of chemical toxicity on human and environmental health, with reports describing chemical pollution as a threat of a similar order as climate change.

The decline in sperm rates since about 1950 stands in an inverse relationship to the explosion in the use of plastics. Swan highlights the established links between common plastic additives, such as phthalates (which give plastics flexibility) and bisphenols (which make them rigid), and falling sperm counts. These chemicals, along with other endocrine-disrupting substances, have a particularly profound effect on developing fetuses. Meanwhile, negotiators recently failed to reach an agreement on a comprehensive treaty to end the plastic pollution crisis, as oil- and gas-producing nations objected to calls for limits on production and curbs on chemicals. Nearly 100 nations had signed a declaration calling for a "legally binding obligation to phase out those most harmful plastic products and chemicals of concern."

Market Signals

Sector Impacts and Opportunities: The chemical and plastics industries face pressure to regulate harmful additives like phthalates and bisphenols, creating opportunities for sustainable alternatives.
Price Movements and Volatility: Changes in demand for specific petrochemical feedstocks used in conventional plastics could see impacts.
Shifts in Competitor Positioning: Companies developing and marketing "safe-by-design" or "chemical-free" alternatives can gain a significant competitive advantage.

Stakeholder Impact

Producers of sustainable alternatives and companies with transparent supply chains are likely to benefit, while manufacturers reliant on problematic additives face disruption risks. Consumers will benefit from the availability of safer products.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Companies should initiate an urgent internal audit to identify the presence of harmful additives and take initial steps to research alternatives.
Short-term: Focus on product reformulation and supply chain audits to prepare for increasing regulatory scrutiny.
Long-term: A structural shift in the plastics industry towards safer and more sustainable materials and processes is anticipated.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: Stricter EU bans or restrictions on specific plastic additives.
Market Volatility: Rapid shifts in consumer preferences for safe and sustainable products, and potential supply chain disruptions in sourcing alternative materials.
Geopolitical Tensions: Could impact international regulatory cooperation on issues like chemical pollution.

Key Indicators

Market Signals: The increasing link between plastic additives and fertility issues signals an impending shift in regulatory requirements and consumer preferences.
Leading Data Points: Declining sperm count rates, European chemical regulations, and international plastic treaty negotiations.

Regional Perspective

Given the global concerns, Ireland, as an EU member, should adhere to strict chemical regulations and promote transparency in ingredients, strengthening its leadership role in sustainable materials.

Immediate Implications

What Happens Next: Regulatory pressure on harmful chemicals in plastics is expected to increase, forcing companies to re-evaluate their products and supply chains.
Time-Sensitive Opportunities or Risks: Companies should explore safe and transparent alternatives now to avoid future negative impacts and capture first-mover advantages.

What to Watch

Leading Indicators: Developments in the EU's Chemical Strategy, changes in REACH regulations, and growing consumer behavior towards safer products.
Expected Next Developments: Regulatory bodies may impose new restrictions on plastic additives.
Key Decision Points: Company decisions on product reformulation and investment in sustainable alternatives.

Analysis

The link between plastic additives and fertility decline underscores the urgent need for innovation in the material industry, with significant implications for public health and the environment. Companies that address these challenges early will be better positioned.