Impact Analysis

The outcome of Bolsonaro's trial could significantly alter Brazil's political landscape, impacting the 2026 presidential elections and the balance of power. A conviction could sideline Bolsonaro politically, while an acquittal might reinvigorate his base. For businesses and investors, the ongoing political uncertainty, fueled by legal battles and public demonstrations, contributes to market volatility. This instability affects investor confidence, potentially influencing interest rates and asset valuations. However, Brazil's projected US$500 billion infrastructure investment opportunities, alongside a strong agribusiness sector, offer counterbalancing attractions for foreign capital, provided regulatory risks are managed.

Timeline

What happened: Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been a recurring feature since 2023, with significant turnouts on August 3, 2025 (57,600 attendees, Bolsonaro absent), and September 7, 2025 (48,800 attendees). Bolsonaro was placed under house arrest on August 4, 2025, by Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
What's happening now: The STF's First Panel is resuming Bolsonaro's trial for attempted coup d'état, with sessions scheduled for September 9, 10, 11, and 12, 2025. The core issue of amnesty for January 8 convicts and Bolsonaro is a major political talking point.
What's next: The STF's decision on Bolsonaro's guilt and potential sentencing (minimum 12 years, maximum 43 years) will be closely watched. This will significantly shape the political discourse and strategies leading into the 2026 general elections, particularly regarding the right-wing's leadership and mobilization efforts.

Different Perspectives

Bolsonaro Supporters: View the trial as politically motivated and advocate for amnesty, seeing Bolsonaro as a victim of judicial overreach. They believe in the power of public mobilization to influence political outcomes.
Governor Tarcísio de Freitas: Criticized the trial's conduct, labeling Justice Moraes's actions as "tyranny" and actively promoting the amnesty agenda, aligning himself with the pro-Bolsonaro movement.
Legal Experts: While many anticipate a conviction for most defendants, legal strategies aim to exploit potential divisions among justices to secure grounds for appeals, such as 'embargos infringentes,' which could prolong the legal process. Concerns about "legal oversteps" and due process are also raised by some critics.
Market Analysts: Observe the political climate as a key factor in market sentiment, linking political instability to currency volatility (e.g., USD/BRL) and investment decisions.