Russia is intensifying its hybrid campaign against bordering NATO countries, employing GPS jamming and communication disruptions as key tools. This activity carries significant implications for businesses, particularly within the logistics, transportation, defense, and technology sectors.

Reports indicate that EU countries along Russia's western border and the Baltic Sea, including the Baltics, Finland, Poland, and Sweden, have raised concerns with international transport organizations regarding a surge in GPS signal jamming and spoofing incidents. They have also highlighted an increase in Russian radio-electronic warfare (REW) installations in border areas. An Estonian regulator stated that 85% of the country's flights experience signal disruption, with a sharp rise in GPS coordinate spoofing cases.

Lithuania has accused Russia of orchestrating a sharp increase in GPS jamming incidents in late July 2025. The Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, and Poland also expressed concerns about Russian REW actions in a letter to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in early July 2025. The ICAO, in turn, has expressed "serious concern" over flight safety. A Lithuanian communications official noted that the impact of Russian REW jamming extends further inland, affecting maritime, shipping, and terrestrial communication towers.

Market Signals

Sector Impacts and Opportunities: The transport and logistics sectors face significant challenges due to GPS jamming, impacting navigation and route planning, and increasing costs. Demand for anti-jamming solutions and alternative navigation systems is growing, presenting opportunities for technology companies.
Price Movements and Volatility: Geopolitical tensions and hybrid attacks can lead to overall market volatility, affecting commodity prices and exchange rates.
Competitor Positioning Changes: Companies offering anti-jamming solutions and alternative navigation systems are benefiting, while those solely reliant on GPS face increasing risks.

Stakeholder Impact

Airlines are incurring financial losses due to flight delays and cancellations. Commercial vessels and freight carriers are facing supply chain disruptions. Manufacturers of anti-jamming equipment and alternative navigation systems are profiting.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Invest in anti-jamming technologies, diversify navigation systems.
Short-term: Re-evaluate supply chains, monitor regulatory changes.
Long-term: Escalation of hybrid activities and increased investment in resilient PNT (Resilient PNT) systems are expected.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: International organizations may impose sanctions or restrictions on Russia.
Market Volatility: Disruptions in logistics could lead to rising prices and economic instability.
Geopolitical Tensions: Increasing tensions between Russia and NATO countries could lead to further hybrid attacks.
Safety Risks: Risk of serious accidents, particularly in aviation and maritime transport, due to GPS unreliability.