Hundreds of thousands of car owners in Sweden face the risk of their eCall emergency call systems failing as support for 2G and 3G mobile networks is phased out by the end of 2025. This technological shift, aimed at freeing up spectrum for faster and more efficient 4G and 5G networks, is significantly impacting the automotive sector. Many vehicles manufactured after March 2018, equipped with eCall systems reliant on these older networks, could encounter issues during technical inspections.

The core problem is that eCall systems, which automatically activate to call emergency services in case of an accident, will lose network connectivity when the 2G/3G networks are switched off. This disconnection can result in an error code or a "villkorstvåa" (a type of second condition) during the vehicle's regular technical inspection, requiring owners to rectify the issue promptly. While the Swedish Transport Agency is working on a solution to suspend or waive the inspection of the eCall function, these measures are delayed and are expected to come into effect earliest in April or May 2026. This means vehicles inspected after December 1, 2025, could be affected.

There is currently no legal mandate for car manufacturers to upgrade eCall systems from 2G/3G to 4G/5G. However, new EU regulations, effective from January 2025, prohibit the granting of type-approvals for new vehicles without 4G/5G-capable eCall systems, and from January 2026, this will become mandatory for all new vehicles. For owners concerned about whether their vehicle is affected, the best course of action is to contact their dealership for specific information about the system installed in their car.

Market Signals

Sector-wide Implications: The shutdown of 2G/3G networks is causing widespread disruption for IoT devices and alarm systems, with a particular focus on the automotive sector and eCall systems. There are promising opportunities for aftermarket solutions and device upgrade companies.
Competitor Positioning Changes: Automotive manufacturers who have already upgraded their systems to 4G/5G are gaining an advantage. Manufacturers with a high proportion of older vehicles face challenges in providing solutions, creating a competitive divergence.
Market Trend Indicator: The phasing out of 2G/3G networks is a global trend driven by the need to free up spectrum for more efficient 5G networks, impacting telecom service providers and device manufacturers.

Winners & Losers

Winners: Telecom operators (like Telia) freeing up spectrum; manufacturers of 4G/5G devices; providers of aftermarket upgrade solutions; and automotive OEMs with 4G/5G-enabled vehicles. Losers: Owners of older, 2G/3G-dependent vehicles; automotive OEMs with a high proportion of affected vehicles; and businesses reliant on older IoT devices.

Action Timeline

Immediate (24-48h): Inventory assessment and identification of affected vehicles. Begin information gathering on potential upgrade solutions.
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Develop customer communication strategies. Explore partnerships with technology and telecom providers.
Long-term: Invest in 4G/5G technology for new vehicles. Monitor regulatory developments and market shifts.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory Risks: Non-compliance with future EU regulations regarding eCall.
Market Volatility: Need for swift responses from automotive manufacturers to avoid reputational damage.
Safety Concerns: Loss of emergency call functionality for millions of vehicles.
Cost of Upgrades: Potential costs for consumers and automotive manufacturers to update systems.

Key Indicators

Signals for Market/Industry: Acceleration of the transition to 5G, with significant implications for the connected car industry.
Leading Indicators & Data Points: Network shutdown timelines, manufacturer announcements on solutions, and updates on regulatory developments.

Regional Perspective

In Sweden, hundreds of thousands of car owners are directly impacted by the 2G/3G network shutdown. Although eCall inspections are currently suspended, this situation is temporary. This presents a unique challenge for owners who may need to seek individual solutions, as there is no legal mandate for all older vehicles to be upgraded.

Immediate Implications

What Happens Next: Vehicle owners who have their cars inspected after December 1, 2025, may face issues with the eCall system.
Time-Sensitive Opportunities or Risks: An opportunity for companies to develop and market upgrade solutions. Risk for automotive manufacturers failing to provide timely solutions.

What to Watch

Leading Indicators to Monitor: Regulatory updates regarding eCall. Automotive manufacturer announcements on upgrade plans.
Expected Next Developments: Launch of aftermarket upgrade solutions. Decisions on reintroducing eCall inspection requirements.
Key Decision Points: Actual network shutdown dates. Timelines for new regulations coming into effect.

Analysis

The shutdown of 2G/3G networks is an inevitable technological shift reflecting the global trend towards next-generation networks. However, its implementation in the automotive sector, particularly concerning mandatory eCall systems, reveals significant challenges in managing the lifecycle of older products. This transition period requires automotive manufacturers and regulators to respond swiftly with clear strategies to ensure occupant safety and regulatory compliance while minimizing consumer disruption.