Former U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200% or 300% on semiconductor imports. While these statements have caused concern in the global tech industry, experts suggest these threats might be part of a negotiation strategy aimed at encouraging domestic investment in the United States and addressing issues like Chinese dumping. Taiwan's Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) should not fear these threats excessively, as it is viewed as a "star student" in its dealings with the U.S.

Trump recently announced that he will announce tariffs on imported steel and semiconductor chips within the next two weeks, starting with lower initial rates to "incentivize companies to come to the U.S." and then gradually increasing them, "possibly up to 200% or 300%" as local manufacturing capacity is built. Semiconductor industry experts believe these statements are not precise about the target and emphasize that the semiconductor industry is multi-national and Taiwan does not need to "put itself in this context" unnecessarily. Trump's core philosophy lies in promoting U.S. investment and countering Chinese dumping.

It is worth noting that Trump and TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei jointly announced at the White House on March 3rd that TSMC will invest at least an additional $100 billion in the United States. According to some experts, TSMC has demonstrated an "excellent" performance in negotiations and fulfilling its commitments, placing it in a strong position. For mature process manufacturing, where companies like Taiwan's UMC and China's SMIC are prominent, the potential target might be to urge companies other than China to accelerate investment in the U.S., especially given the current U.S. capacity shortages in this area.

Market Signals

Sector impacts and investment opportunities in semiconductors.
Price movements associated with tariff threats.
Shifts in competitor positioning based on U.S. investments.

Winners & Losers

Asian semiconductor manufacturers without a U.S. presence face the highest tariff risk. Companies with significant U.S. investments, like TSMC, may benefit from potential exemptions. Increased semiconductor costs could lead to higher prices for consumer electronics.

Action Timeline

Immediate (24-48h): Monitor official U.S. administration announcements regarding tariff details and exemption scope.
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Assess companies' exposure to U.S. investments and prepare for negotiations.
Long-term: Restructuring of supply chains in response to policy shifts.

Risk Assessment

Regulatory risks due to uncertainty over tariff implementation and exemptions.
Market volatility stemming from political uncertainty.
Geopolitical tensions impacting global trade relations.

Key Indicators

These developments signal a shift in U.S. trade policy towards encouraging domestic production.
Monitoring future investment announcements from semiconductor firms will be a leading indicator.

Regional Perspective

Taiwanese experts advise that TSMC, as a "star student" in negotiations, should not fear Trump's threat of 300% semiconductor tariffs, indicating Taiwan's strategic position in its relationship with the U.S.

Immediate Implications

Companies should closely monitor official announcements.
There is an opportunity for companies with U.S. investments to solidify their positions before potential sanctions are imposed.

What to Watch

Official announcements from the U.S. administration on tariff timelines and details.
Future investment announcements from companies in U.S. manufacturing.
Ongoing negotiations and policy adjustments by the Taiwanese government.

Analysis

The threat of significant semiconductor tariffs by the U.S. presents a complex landscape of risks and opportunities. Companies with strong U.S. manufacturing ties are better positioned, while those without these connections face considerable challenges. Proactive engagement, strategic investment, and careful monitoring of policy developments are crucial for navigating this evolving environment.