Washington has authorized specific instances where Ukraine can conduct long-range strikes on Russian territory, a significant shift in policy announced by US Special Envoy for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg, in a Sunday interview with Fox News. This development effectively ends the notion that Russian forces have a 'sanctuary' on their own soil, marking a potential escalation in the ongoing conflict.

The authorization, detailed by Kellogg, applies to 'specific cases' and is not a blanket permission for indiscriminate attacks. This nuanced approach comes after months of debate and follows a period where the US had restricted Ukraine's use of American-supplied weapons for strikes inside Russia. The decision appears to be a calculated response to evolving battlefield dynamics and potentially to actions taken by Russia, such as the involvement of North Korean forces.

This policy change has been framed within the context of broader strategic discussions about supporting Ukraine's defense capabilities. While the previous Biden administration had allowed the use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles under certain conditions, former President Donald Trump had previously expressed concerns about such escalations. The current authorization, however, suggests a recalibration of these concerns, potentially influenced by the perceived necessity to bolster Ukraine's defensive and offensive options against a persistent Russian threat.

Key Context

Background and History: The conflict's roots trace back centuries, with intensified tensions since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Related Developments: Previous US policy restricted strikes inside Russia; this marks a notable departure.
Important Connections: The decision is linked to battlefield realities, potential Russian escalations, and strategic considerations by the US and NATO allies.

Impact Analysis

This decision directly impacts Ukraine's military strategy, potentially enhancing its ability to disrupt Russian logistics and command centers on Russian territory. For Russia, it removes a perceived safety net and could lead to a reassessment of its own offensive and defensive postures. The broader geopolitical landscape is also affected, as this signals a stronger US commitment to enabling Ukraine's self-defense, though it carries the risk of unpredictable Russian responses and further escalation.

Timeline

What happened: US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg announced specific authorization for Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes inside Russia on September 28th.
What's happening now: Ukraine can now target specific Russian military assets within its territory under defined circumstances. Discussions are ongoing regarding further military aid, potentially including longer-range systems like Tomahawk missiles.
What's next: Potential for increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil, Russian reactions, and further diplomatic maneuvering to manage escalation risks.

Different Perspectives

US Officials: Emphasize the 'specific cases' nature of the authorization, stressing that final decisions rest with President Trump and are assessed case-by-case.
Ukrainian Officials: View this as a critical shift, potentially enabling more effective defense and signaling stronger international support. President Zelensky has noted a perceived shift in understanding from former President Trump.
Russian Officials: Likely to condemn the move as a dangerous escalation, potentially leading to retaliatory measures.
International Analysts: Acknowledge the strategic implications, balancing the potential benefits for Ukraine against the risks of wider conflict.

What You Need to Know

The US has authorized Ukraine to conduct specific long-range strikes inside Russia.
This policy shift removes the 'sanctuary' concept for Russian forces on their territory.
The authorization is limited to specific cases, not a general permission.
The move signifies a potential escalation and a stronger US commitment to Ukraine's defense.

Regional Perspective

For Ukraine, this offers a crucial tactical advantage, allowing strikes against staging grounds, supply lines, and command centers within Russia that have previously been off-limits. For Russia, it means a new dimension of vulnerability, potentially forcing a redeployment of assets away from the front lines and closer to its borders. The border regions of Russia may now face increased military activity, altering the security calculus for local populations.

Why This Matters

This is a significant policy shift from the US, altering the strategic dynamics of the war.
It directly addresses Ukraine's requests for enhanced long-range strike capabilities.
The decision could influence the future trajectory of the conflict and Russia's willingness to negotiate.

What to Watch

The frequency and targets of Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia.
Russia's official response and any retaliatory actions.
Statements from US and NATO officials clarifying or modifying the policy.
Potential discussions regarding further advanced weapon systems for Ukraine.

Analysis

The US decision to permit specific long-range strikes inside Russia represents a critical juncture in the Ukraine conflict. It moves beyond a purely defensive posture for Ukraine, empowering it to strike at the logistical and operational heart of Russia's war machine. This calculated risk by Washington aims to level the playing field, acknowledging that Russia has been striking Ukraine with impunity from its territory. However, the tight framing of 'specific cases' suggests a deliberate effort to manage escalation. The true impact will depend on the clarity of these parameters, the effectiveness of Ukrainian execution, and, crucially, Russia's reaction, which could range from calibrated responses to broader escalation, potentially involving asymmetric threats or further diplomatic isolation.