Two years after the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash, the paramilitary operations once managed by the group continue in Africa under a new name: "Africa Corps." This paramilitary force now operates under the direct supervision of the Russian Ministry of Defence, signaling a shift in leadership and operational structure.

Currently, "Africa Corps" units are deployed in various African countries. The Sahel region, particularly Mali, has seen notable activity. An incident in early August, which resulted in the deaths of at least three Russian soldiers, underscores the persistently tense security situation in Mali. No significant improvement in the security situation has occurred even after four years of Wagner troop presence in the country.

Russia's interests in Africa are both economic and political. Russia benefits from resource-rich nations by offering security services in exchange for control over mines and maintains its position as the largest arms exporter to the continent. Politically, Russia seeks to expand its influence and gain international allies, as reflected in the voting patterns of countries with Russian military presence in UN deliberations.

Market Signals

Increased activity of Russian mercenaries in Africa, particularly in Mali, to support military rulers.
A doubling of violent incidents involving Russian mercenaries in Africa in Q4 2023, a trend continuing into 2024.
Continued involvement of the group in the exploitation of natural resources in countries like the Central African Republic and Sudan.
Intensifying strategic competition from Russia challenging Western influence and resources in Africa.

Winners & Losers

Winners: African authoritarian regimes seeking protection; Russia, gaining political influence and resources; and resource extraction companies linked to the group. Losers: Civilian populations enduring human rights abuses; Western governments and businesses seeing their influence wane; and legitimate businesses facing risks of corruption and instability.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Necessity for rigorous due diligence for investors in African nations active with "Africa Corps."
Short-term: Monitor intelligence reports and engage with security consultants to anticipate risks.
Long-term: Focus on promoting stability, good governance, and transparent resource management to ensure a secure investment environment.

Risk Assessment

Risks of geopolitical instability and escalation of regional conflicts.
Regulatory and compliance risks when operating in regions with the group's presence, including human rights abuses and corruption.
Market volatility due to the impact of mercenary activities on the investment climate.
Reputational damage for companies indirectly associated with entities involved in human rights abuses.

Key Indicators

The shift to "Africa Corps" indicates a more formalized and state-sanctioned approach by Russia to mercenary operations in Africa.
Tracking new and renewed resource extraction deals in countries where the group operates serves as key economic indicators of their ongoing interests.
Observing shifts in diplomatic and military alliances in Africa, particularly those strengthening ties with Russia.

Regional Perspective

Mali, rich in gold, serves as a key theatre where the Russians have succeeded in displacing Western, particularly French, influence and strengthening ties with the ruling military junta. This transition is symbolically significant and reflects Russia's strategy to expand its influence in the region.

Immediate Implications

Security tensions in Mali persist, impacting the business environment and investment.
Opportunities for companies focusing on stability and governance to gain a competitive advantage.
Increased risks for companies failing to conduct adequate due diligence.

What to Watch

Evolution and expansion of "Africa Corps" operations.
Changes in resource extraction deals in African countries.
Shifts in geopolitical alliances within Africa.
New international sanctions against entities linked to "Africa Corps."

Analysis

The "Africa Corps" represents a new phase in Russia's military and economic strategy in Africa post-Prigozhin. This development reflects a sustained commitment to achieving geopolitical and economic objectives, focusing on resource exploitation, challenging Western influence, and often accompanied by instability and human rights abuses. Businesses must exercise extreme caution and stay informed about the evolving geopolitical landscape.