Winners & Losers

Potential Winners: Companies with diverse infectious disease portfolios, diagnostic and research firms, manufacturers of established Mpox vaccines and treatments, and public health organizations focused on endemic disease management. Potential Losers: Companies heavily specialized in Mpox emergency response and organizations reliant on emergency-driven funding may face reduced demand and financial support. Supply chains will need to adapt from emergency bulk orders to sustained, targeted distribution.

Action Timeline

Immediate: Companies should reassess Mpox-related R&D pipelines and market strategies in light of reduced global emergency focus. Secure ongoing supply agreements for existing vaccines and treatments.
Short-term: Focus on strengthening partnerships for surveillance and response in endemic regions, particularly in Africa, where donor support may decline. Develop targeted communication strategies for vulnerable groups.
Long-term: Invest in next-generation vaccines and therapeutics effective against evolving strains. Build resilient supply chains capable of sustained, equitable distribution globally.

Risk Assessment

Reduced Vigilance: Lifting the PHEIC could lead to complacency and a decrease in public awareness and preventative measures.
Funding Shortfalls: Diminished international focus may impact ongoing surveillance, research, and response efforts, especially in under-resourced regions.
Evolving Strains: Continued circulation of Clade I strains in Africa poses a risk of future outbreaks and potential international spread.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Challenges in manufacturing and distribution may arise with decreased global emergency focus.
Stigmatization: Ongoing efforts to reduce stigma are crucial for ensuring access to care for at-risk populations.

Key Indicators

Africa CDC Declarations: Monitor ongoing updates from the Africa CDC regarding their 'continental health emergency' status for Mpox.
Case Trends in Africa: Continued tracking of Mpox case numbers and mortality rates in African countries, particularly the DRC, remains crucial for assessing ongoing threat levels.
Emergence of New Strains: Surveillance for new or significantly mutated Mpox strains with increased transmissibility or severity is a critical indicator of future risks.

Regional Perspective

While the global emergency is over, Mpox remains a significant challenge in Africa, designated a 'continental health emergency' by the Africa CDC. The lifting of the WHO PHEIC could impact donor support for these vital health systems, creating an urgent need for sustained national and international commitment to surveillance, treatment, and vaccination efforts in endemic countries. The DRC, in particular, has seen a significant reduction in its case fatality rate, demonstrating the effectiveness of response capacities, yet the risk of flare-ups necessitates continued focus.