Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington D.C. on Monday, August 18, 2025. This invitation followed a phone call lasting over an hour and a half on Saturday, where the two leaders discussed details for ending the war in Ukraine. The meeting aims to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which began with a full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022.

This visit comes at a critical juncture, as Trump's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska yielded no ceasefire or peace deal. The discussions between Trump and Zelenskyy could pave a new path, especially as Trump has previously expressed a preference for a swift peace deal over a ceasefire, noting that Ukraine needs to be willing to 'make a deal.' The outcomes could influence mineral deals and the geopolitical landscape, potentially impacting the defense sector.

Market Signals

Oil markets may react to developments, though Russian supply disruption risks are currently contained.
The defense sector could see divergent scenarios; de-escalation might reduce defense spending, while sustained hostilities would boost demand for military hardware.
Gold and uranium are highlighted as key hedges against geopolitical risks.
The performance of the Russian ruble is seen as a barometer for Russian economic stability.

Winners & Losers

US companies could find new investment opportunities in Ukraine's reconstruction and natural resource sectors. However, Ukraine faces risks of territorial loss and erosion of sovereignty if pressured to concede to Russian terms. The European Union risks marginalization if the US and Russia grow closer on Ukraine.

Action Timeline

Immediate (24-48h): Monitor statements from Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders. Watch for market reactions, particularly in oil prices and defense stocks.
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Assess geopolitical sentiment and analyze market perceptions of peace prospects or continued conflict.
Long-term: Pursue investment opportunities in Ukraine's reconstruction and natural resource development.

Risk Assessment

Geopolitical instability remains high due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Market volatility will depend on potential ceasefires, continued hostilities, or partial agreements.
Regulatory risks persist, including corruption and wartime currency controls in Ukraine.
Pressure on Ukraine to cede territory could lead to permanent losses and erosion of sovereignty.

Key Indicators

This meeting signals a potential shift in US policy toward resolving the Ukraine crisis.
Market sensitivity to geopolitical risks and their impact on the defense sector are key monitoring points.

Regional Perspective

The meeting highlights US-Ukraine relations and opportunities for US investment in Ukraine's reconstruction, particularly in the mineral resource sector. The European Union risks being marginalized from these discussions.

Immediate Implications

Statements from leaders on both sides following the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting will be crucial.
Monitor any immediate shifts in oil prices, defense stock movements, and currency valuations.

What to Watch

Outcomes of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and any agreements reached.
Any shifts in US military and financial aid to Ukraine.
Responses from EU capitals regarding potential compromises on Ukraine.
Trump's emphasis on a swift peace deal over a ceasefire.

Analysis

This meeting marks a potentially significant turning point in the Ukraine war. Trump's 'transactional' approach and his emphasis on a swift peace deal could pressure Ukraine into making concessions. This could also affect US relations with its European allies, as they might reach an agreement that bypasses EU interests.